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Cambridge United vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Cambridge United
Cambridge United
Preview
15:00
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
2/13/2027League OneLeague One · Round 31Abbey Stadium
Big match
41%
Cambridge United
model favours
41%27%32%

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cambridge United41%
×Draw27%
Burton Albion32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambridge United
1.33
Burton Albion
1.14

Cambridge United creates 17% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 176 away

creates per match

Cambridge United
1.08
Burton Albion
1.06

allows per match

Cambridge United
1.22
Burton Albion
1.59

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw
68%
Cambridge United or Burton Albion
73%
Draw or Burton Albion
59%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+
19%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals
74%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
38%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
15%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
68%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
32%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)
56%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 176 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Burton Albion defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Burton Albion attack 1.06 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cambridge United scores more
41%
level
27%
Burton Albion scores more
32%

Cambridge United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burton Albion win just 24% of their away games
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Cambridge United
Direct / counter-attacking
Burton Albion
Direct / counter-attacking
43%Possession43%
65%Pass accuracy65%
10.9ShotsBiggest gap9.9
—xG1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Cambridge UnitedBurton Albion

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3
Cambridge United
2
Draws
3
Burton Albion
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 50%
1–21–00–01–20–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
United
WWDW
Albion
LLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cambridge United host Burton Albion

February 13, 2027: Cambridge United take on Burton Albion in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cambridge United host Burton Albion at Abbey Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.