Cambridge United 4–3 Burton Albion: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Burton Albion

L. O'Neil 79'

S. Smith 69', 53', 34'

G. Yahyai 67', 1'

J. Brayford 41'

8/27/2022

League One · Round 6Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cambridge United41%

×Draw27%

Burton Albion32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.14

Cambridge United

1.33

Burton Albion

1.14

Cambridge United creates 17% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 176 away

1.08

creates per match

1.06

1.22

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.08

Burton Albion

1.06

allows per match

Cambridge United

1.22

Burton Albion

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

68%

Cambridge United or Burton Albion

73%

Draw or Burton Albion

59%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

19%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

74%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

38%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

15%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

68%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

32%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

56%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 176 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Burton Albion defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Burton Albion attack 1.06 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cambridge United scores more

41%

level

27%

Burton Albion scores more

32%

Cambridge United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Smith

Cambridge United · M

9.0

Match Events

-5'

1'

10'

19'

27'

34'

38'

41'

J. Brayford↳ T. Taylor

46'

T. Onyango← W. Kokolo

51'

John Brayford

53'

S. Smith↳ A. May

62'

J. Powell← D. Keillor-Dunn

66'

L. O'Neil← P. Digby

67'

G. Yahyai

69'

S. Smith↳ L. O'Neil

78'

J. Lankester← H. Knibbs

79'

L. O'Neil↳ J. Ironside

90+6'

Jack Lankester

90+7'

Cameron Borthwick-Jackson

90+5'

Z. Rossi← S. Tracey

90'

V. Adeboyejo← C. Butcher

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeBurton

Overview

72%Possession28%

21Total Shots12

6Corners5

8Fouls20

Shots

21Total Shots12

9On Target3

8Off Target4

4Blocked5

15Inside Box9

6Outside Box3

Passing

72%Possession28%

466Total Passes178

369Accurate Passes91

79%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls20

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1