Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon

Cambridge United

Preview

14:00

AFC Wimbledon

9/26/2026

League One · Round 8Abbey Stadium

42%

Cambridge United

model favours

42%27%31%

1–1

likely score

56%

under 2.5 goals

49%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cambridge United42%

×Draw27%

AFC Wimbledon31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.09

Cambridge United

1.33

AFC Wimbledon

1.09

Cambridge United creates 22% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 109 away

1.08

creates per match

0.96

1.22

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.08

AFC Wimbledon

0.96

allows per match

Cambridge United

1.22

AFC Wimbledon

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

69%

Cambridge United or AFC Wimbledon

73%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

58%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

19%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

74%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

38%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

15%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

66%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

30%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

58%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.58 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cambridge United scores more

42%

level

27%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

31%

Cambridge United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Cambridge United

Direct / counter-attacking

AFC Wimbledon

Balanced

44%PossessionBiggest gap47%

66%Pass accuracy67%

10.9Shots10.6

—xG1.14

Cambridge UnitedAFC Wimbledon

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

United

WWDW

Wimbledon

DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff