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Calvo Sotelo vs Manchego — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Calvo Sotelo
Calvo Sotelo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Manchego
Manchego
1/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 21Estadio Ciudad de Puertollano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Calvo Sotelo50%
×Draw27%
Manchego23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calvo Sotelo
1.42
Manchego
0.88

Calvo Sotelo creates 61% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 94 away

creates per match

Calvo Sotelo
1.83
Manchego
1.05

allows per match

Calvo Sotelo
0.70
Manchego
1.01

finishing

Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par
Manchego+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calvo Sotelo ↓

Manchego →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Calvo Sotelo or draw
77%
Calvo Sotelo or Manchego
73%
Draw or Manchego
50%

Winning margin

Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+
24%
Manchego wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals
76%
Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals
41%
Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals
17%
Manchego 1+ goals
59%
Manchego 2+ goals
22%
Manchego 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)
68%
Manchego (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calvo Sotelo at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.70 · 93 matches

Manchego away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.01 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.83 + Manchego defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.42

Manchego attack 1.05 + Calvo Sotelo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Calvo Sotelo scores more
50%
level
27%
Manchego scores more
23%

Calvo Sotelo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Calvo Sotelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Calvo Sotelo 3–0 Manchego

Calvo Sotelo beat Manchego 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Puertollano in Puertollano.