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Calvo Sotelo vs Huracán Balazote — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Calvo Sotelo
Calvo Sotelo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Huracán Balazote
Huracán Balazote
11/12/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 10Estadio Ciudad de Puertollano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Calvo Sotelo57%
×Draw25%
Huracán Balazote19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calvo Sotelo
1.64
Huracán Balazote
0.82

Calvo Sotelo creates 100% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 81 away

creates per match

Calvo Sotelo
1.83
Huracán Balazote
0.95

allows per match

Calvo Sotelo
0.70
Huracán Balazote
1.44

finishing

Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par
Huracán Balazote+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calvo Sotelo ↓

Huracán Balazote →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Calvo Sotelo or draw
81%
Calvo Sotelo or Huracán Balazote
75%
Draw or Huracán Balazote
43%

Winning margin

Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+
31%
Huracán Balazote wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals
81%
Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals
49%
Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals
23%
Huracán Balazote 1+ goals
56%
Huracán Balazote 2+ goals
20%
Huracán Balazote 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)
75%
Huracán Balazote (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calvo Sotelo at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.70 · 93 matches

Huracán Balazote away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.83 + Huracán Balazote defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.64

Huracán Balazote attack 0.95 + Calvo Sotelo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Calvo Sotelo scores more
57%
level
25%
Huracán Balazote scores more
19%

Calvo Sotelo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Calvo Sotelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calvo Sotelo vs Huracán Balazote

Calvo Sotelo and Huracán Balazote drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Puertollano in Puertollano.