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Calvo Sotelo vs Conquense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Calvo Sotelo
Calvo Sotelo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Conquense
Conquense
12/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 16Estadio Ciudad de Puertollano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Calvo Sotelo46%
×Draw28%
Conquense27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calvo Sotelo
1.35
Conquense
0.96

Calvo Sotelo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 76 away

creates per match

Calvo Sotelo
1.83
Conquense
1.22

allows per match

Calvo Sotelo
0.70
Conquense
0.87

finishing

Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par
Conquense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calvo Sotelo ↓

Conquense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Calvo Sotelo or draw
73%
Calvo Sotelo or Conquense
72%
Draw or Conquense
54%

Winning margin

Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+
22%
Conquense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals
74%
Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals
39%
Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals
15%
Conquense 1+ goals
62%
Conquense 2+ goals
25%
Conquense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)
63%
Conquense (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calvo Sotelo at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.70 · 93 matches

Conquense away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.83 + Conquense defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.35

Conquense attack 1.22 + Calvo Sotelo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Calvo Sotelo scores more
46%
level
28%
Conquense scores more
27%

Calvo Sotelo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Calvo Sotelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calvo Sotelo vs Conquense

Calvo Sotelo beat Conquense 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Puertollano in Puertollano.