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Calgary Wild W vs Vancouver Rise W — Northern Super League 2026

Calgary Wild W
Calgary Wild W
Preview
20:00
Vancouver Rise W
Vancouver Rise W
9/27/2026Northern Super LeagueNorthern Super League
Big match
43%
Vancouver Rise W
model favours
33%23%43%

Vancouver Rise W have scored in 8 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Calgary Wild W33%
×Draw23%
Vancouver Rise W43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calgary Wild W
1.48
Vancouver Rise W
1.71

Vancouver Rise W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Calgary Wild W
1.05
Vancouver Rise W
1.43

allows per match

Calgary Wild W
2.00
Vancouver Rise W
1.90

finishing

Calgary Wild W+0.00on par
Vancouver Rise W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calgary Wild W ↓

Vancouver Rise W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Calgary Wild W or draw
57%
Calgary Wild W or Vancouver Rise W
77%
Draw or Vancouver Rise W
67%

Winning margin

Calgary Wild W wins by 2+
16%
Vancouver Rise W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Calgary Wild W 1+ goals
77%
Calgary Wild W 2+ goals
43%
Calgary Wild W 3+ goals
19%
Vancouver Rise W 1+ goals
82%
Vancouver Rise W 2+ goals
51%
Vancouver Rise W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Calgary Wild W (draw refunded)
44%
Vancouver Rise W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calgary Wild W at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

Vancouver Rise W away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calgary Wild W attack 1.05 + Vancouver Rise W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.48

Vancouver Rise W attack 1.43 + Calgary Wild W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Calgary Wild W scores more
33%
level
23%
Vancouver Rise W scores more
43%

Vancouver Rise W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vancouver Rise W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (64% and 69% over 2.5)
  • 69% of Vancouver Rise W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LLLDL
W
WLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Calgary Wild W face Vancouver Rise W (Northern Super League)

Northern Super League returns with Calgary Wild W hosting Vancouver Rise W. Match starts September 27, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.