Calgary Wild W 3–2 Halifax Tides W: Result & Stats

Calgary Wild W

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Halifax Tides W

6/6/2025

Northern Super League · Round 2McMahon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Calgary Wild W35%

×Draw26%

Halifax Tides W39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Calgary Wild WExpected goals in this matchHalifax Tides W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.35

Calgary Wild W

1.26

Halifax Tides W

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

1.05

creates per match

0.71

2.00

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Calgary Wild W

1.05

Halifax Tides W

0.71

allows per match

Calgary Wild W

2.00

Halifax Tides W

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calgary Wild W+0.00on par

Halifax Tides W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calgary Wild W ↓

Halifax Tides W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Calgary Wild W or draw

61%

Calgary Wild W or Halifax Tides W

74%

Draw or Halifax Tides W

65%

Winning margin

Calgary Wild W wins by 2+

15%

Halifax Tides W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Calgary Wild W 1+ goals

72%

Calgary Wild W 2+ goals

36%

Calgary Wild W 3+ goals

13%

Halifax Tides W 1+ goals

74%

Halifax Tides W 2+ goals

39%

Halifax Tides W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Calgary Wild W (draw refunded)

47%

Halifax Tides W (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calgary Wild W at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

Halifax Tides W away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calgary Wild W attack 1.05 + Halifax Tides W defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.26

Halifax Tides W attack 0.71 + Calgary Wild W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Calgary Wild W scores more

35%

level

26%

Halifax Tides W scores more

39%

Halifax Tides W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Halifax Tides W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff