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Calgary Foothills vs TSS Rovers — USL League Two 2018

Calgary Foothills
Calgary Foothills
PST
01:00
TSS Rovers
TSS Rovers
5/30/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 15Mount Royal University (Calgary, Alberta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Calgary Foothills70%
×Draw15%
TSS Rovers15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calgary Foothills
3.10
TSS Rovers
1.39

Calgary Foothills creates 123% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Calgary Foothills
2.00
TSS Rovers
1.60

allows per match

Calgary Foothills
1.17
TSS Rovers
4.20

finishing

Calgary Foothills+0.00on par
TSS Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calgary Foothills ↓

TSS Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Calgary Foothills or draw
85%
Calgary Foothills or TSS Rovers
85%
Draw or TSS Rovers
30%

Winning margin

Calgary Foothills wins by 2+
51%
TSS Rovers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Calgary Foothills 1+ goals
95%
Calgary Foothills 2+ goals
81%
Calgary Foothills 3+ goals
58%
TSS Rovers 1+ goals
75%
TSS Rovers 2+ goals
40%
TSS Rovers 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Calgary Foothills (draw refunded)
83%
TSS Rovers (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calgary Foothills at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

TSS Rovers away — creates 1.60, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calgary Foothills attack 2.00 + TSS Rovers defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.10

TSS Rovers attack 1.60 + Calgary Foothills defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Calgary Foothills scores more
70%
level
15%
TSS Rovers scores more
15%

Calgary Foothills at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Calgary Foothills will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Calgary Foothills face TSS Rovers (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Calgary Foothills hosting TSS Rovers. Match starts May 30, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Calgary Foothills host TSS Rovers at Mount Royal University (Calgary, Alberta).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.