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Calgary Foothills vs Portland Timbers III — USL League Two 2018

Calgary Foothills
Calgary Foothills
PST
18:00
Portland Timbers III
Portland Timbers III
6/27/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 41Mount Royal University (Calgary, Alberta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Calgary Foothills39%
×Draw23%
Portland Timbers III38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calgary Foothills
1.73
Portland Timbers III
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

creates per match

Calgary Foothills
2.00
Portland Timbers III
2.20

allows per match

Calgary Foothills
1.17
Portland Timbers III
1.47

finishing

Calgary Foothills+0.00on par
Portland Timbers III+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calgary Foothills ↓

Portland Timbers III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Calgary Foothills or draw
62%
Calgary Foothills or Portland Timbers III
77%
Draw or Portland Timbers III
61%

Winning margin

Calgary Foothills wins by 2+
20%
Portland Timbers III wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Calgary Foothills 1+ goals
82%
Calgary Foothills 2+ goals
52%
Calgary Foothills 3+ goals
25%
Portland Timbers III 1+ goals
82%
Portland Timbers III 2+ goals
50%
Portland Timbers III 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Calgary Foothills (draw refunded)
51%
Portland Timbers III (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calgary Foothills at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Portland Timbers III away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calgary Foothills attack 2.00 + Portland Timbers III defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

Portland Timbers III attack 2.20 + Calgary Foothills defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Calgary Foothills scores more
39%
level
23%
Portland Timbers III scores more
38%

Calgary Foothills at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Calgary Foothills will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Calgary Foothills vs Portland Timbers III — Match Preview

Calgary Foothills face Portland Timbers III on June 27, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Calgary Foothills host Portland Timbers III at Mount Royal University (Calgary, Alberta).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.