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Calgary Foothills vs Lane United — USL League Two 2018

Calgary Foothills
Calgary Foothills
PST
01:00
Lane United
Lane United
5/16/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 3Mount Royal University (Calgary, Alberta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Calgary Foothills52%
×Draw22%
Lane United25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calgary Foothills
1.93
Lane United
1.28

Calgary Foothills creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 33 away

creates per match

Calgary Foothills
2.00
Lane United
1.39

allows per match

Calgary Foothills
1.17
Lane United
1.85

finishing

Calgary Foothills+0.00on par
Lane United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calgary Foothills ↓

Lane United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Calgary Foothills or draw
75%
Calgary Foothills or Lane United
78%
Draw or Lane United
48%

Winning margin

Calgary Foothills wins by 2+
30%
Lane United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Calgary Foothills 1+ goals
85%
Calgary Foothills 2+ goals
57%
Calgary Foothills 3+ goals
30%
Lane United 1+ goals
72%
Lane United 2+ goals
37%
Lane United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Calgary Foothills (draw refunded)
67%
Lane United (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calgary Foothills at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Lane United away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calgary Foothills attack 2.00 + Lane United defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.93

Lane United attack 1.39 + Calgary Foothills defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Calgary Foothills scores more
52%
level
22%
Lane United scores more
25%

Calgary Foothills at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Calgary Foothills will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Calgary Foothills face Lane United (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Calgary Foothills hosting Lane United. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Calgary Foothills host Lane United at Mount Royal University (Calgary, Alberta).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.