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Caldiero Terme vs Delta Porto Tolle — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Caldiero Terme
Caldiero Terme
PST
13:30
Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
3/15/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 29Stadio Comunale di Caldiero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Caldiero Terme39%
×Draw27%
Delta Porto Tolle34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caldiero Terme
1.33
Delta Porto Tolle
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 30 away

creates per match

Caldiero Terme
1.29
Delta Porto Tolle
1.13

allows per match

Caldiero Terme
1.31
Delta Porto Tolle
1.37

finishing

Caldiero Terme+0.00on par
Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldiero Terme ↓

Delta Porto Tolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Caldiero Terme or draw
66%
Caldiero Terme or Delta Porto Tolle
73%
Draw or Delta Porto Tolle
61%

Winning margin

Caldiero Terme wins by 2+
18%
Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Caldiero Terme 1+ goals
74%
Caldiero Terme 2+ goals
38%
Caldiero Terme 3+ goals
15%
Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
70%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
34%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)
54%
Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldiero Terme at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

Delta Porto Tolle away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldiero Terme attack 1.29 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.13 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Caldiero Terme scores more
39%
level
27%
Delta Porto Tolle scores more
34%

Caldiero Terme at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Caldiero Terme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Caldiero Terme host Delta Porto Tolle

March 15, 2020: Caldiero Terme take on Delta Porto Tolle in Serie D - Girone C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Caldiero Terme host Delta Porto Tolle at Stadio Comunale di Caldiero.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.