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Caldas vs SC Covilha — Taça de Portugal 2018

Caldas
Caldas
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SC Covilha
SC Covilha
10/2/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundCampo da Mata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Caldas40%
×Draw26%
SC Covilha34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caldas
1.42
SC Covilha
1.29

Caldas creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Caldas
1.64
SC Covilha
1.40

allows per match

Caldas
1.18
SC Covilha
1.20

finishing

Caldas+0.00on par
SC Covilha+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldas ↓

SC Covilha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Caldas or draw
66%
Caldas or SC Covilha
74%
Draw or SC Covilha
60%

Winning margin

Caldas wins by 2+
19%
SC Covilha wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Caldas 1+ goals
76%
Caldas 2+ goals
41%
Caldas 3+ goals
17%
SC Covilha 1+ goals
72%
SC Covilha 2+ goals
37%
SC Covilha 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Caldas (draw refunded)
54%
SC Covilha (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldas at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

SC Covilha away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldas attack 1.64 + SC Covilha defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.42

SC Covilha attack 1.40 + Caldas defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Caldas scores more
40%
level
26%
SC Covilha scores more
34%

Caldas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Caldas 3–0 SC Covilha

Caldas beat SC Covilha 3-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Campo da Mata in Caldas da Rainha.