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Calamocha vs Cuarte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Calamocha
Calamocha
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Cuarte
Cuarte
4/14/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 32Campo De Fútbol Jumaya Calamocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Calamocha36%
×Draw29%
Cuarte34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calamocha
1.10
Cuarte
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 112 away

creates per match

Calamocha
1.25
Cuarte
1.08

allows per match

Calamocha
1.05
Cuarte
0.96

finishing

Calamocha+0.00on par
Cuarte+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calamocha ↓

Cuarte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Calamocha or draw
66%
Calamocha or Cuarte
71%
Draw or Cuarte
64%

Winning margin

Calamocha wins by 2+
15%
Cuarte wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Calamocha 1+ goals
67%
Calamocha 2+ goals
30%
Calamocha 3+ goals
10%
Cuarte 1+ goals
65%
Cuarte 2+ goals
29%
Cuarte 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Calamocha (draw refunded)
51%
Cuarte (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calamocha at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Cuarte away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calamocha attack 1.25 + Cuarte defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Cuarte attack 1.08 + Calamocha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Calamocha scores more
36%
level
29%
Cuarte scores more
34%

Calamocha at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Calamocha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calamocha vs Cuarte

Cuarte beat Calamocha 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on April 14, 2022.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Jumaya Calamocha in Calamocha.