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Calahorra II vs Agoncillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Calahorra II
Calahorra II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Agoncillo
Agoncillo
12/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 13Campo De Fútbol San Emeterio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Calahorra II49%
×Draw24%
Agoncillo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra II
1.66
Agoncillo
1.17

Calahorra II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 79 away

creates per match

Calahorra II
1.89
Agoncillo
1.18

allows per match

Calahorra II
1.16
Agoncillo
1.43

finishing

Calahorra II+0.00on par
Agoncillo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra II ↓

Agoncillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Calahorra II or draw
73%
Calahorra II or Agoncillo
76%
Draw or Agoncillo
51%

Winning margin

Calahorra II wins by 2+
26%
Agoncillo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Calahorra II 1+ goals
81%
Calahorra II 2+ goals
49%
Calahorra II 3+ goals
23%
Agoncillo 1+ goals
69%
Agoncillo 2+ goals
33%
Agoncillo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Calahorra II (draw refunded)
64%
Agoncillo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.16 · 92 matches

Agoncillo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra II attack 1.89 + Agoncillo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.66

Agoncillo attack 1.18 + Calahorra II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Calahorra II scores more
49%
level
24%
Agoncillo scores more
27%

Calahorra II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Calahorra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Calahorra II 3 – 2 Agoncillo

Calahorra II beat Agoncillo 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol San Emeterio in Calahorra.