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Cagliari vs Udinese — Serie A 2018

Cagliari
Cagliari
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Udinese
Udinese
12/18/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 18Unipol Domus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Cagliari38%
×Draw27%
Udinese34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cagliari
1.26
Udinese
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 28 away

creates per match

Cagliari
0.96
Udinese
1.09

allows per match

Cagliari
1.26
Udinese
1.56

finishing

Cagliari+0.12scores more
Udinese+0.20scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Udinese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw
66%
Cagliari or Udinese
73%
Draw or Udinese
62%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+
17%
Udinese wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals
72%
Cagliari 2+ goals
36%
Cagliari 3+ goals
13%
Udinese 1+ goals
69%
Udinese 2+ goals
33%
Udinese 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)
53%
Udinese (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.56 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 0.96 + Udinese defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.26

Udinese attack 1.09 + Cagliari defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cagliari scores more
38%
level
27%
Udinese scores more
34%

Cagliari at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Cagliari 0–4 Udinese

Udinese beat Cagliari 4-0 in Serie A on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Unipol Domus in Cagliari.