Cagliari 1–1 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cagliari

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sassuolo

Joao Pedro 63'

F. Caputo 12'

7/18/2020

Serie A · Round 34Sardegna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Cagliari39%

×Draw27%

Sassuolo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CagliariExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.21

Cagliari

1.33

Sassuolo

1.21

Cagliari creates 10% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 31 away

0.96

creates per match

1.15

1.26

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Cagliari

0.96

Sassuolo

1.15

allows per match

Cagliari

1.26

Sassuolo

1.70

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Cagliari+0.12scores more

Sassuolo-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw

66%

Cagliari or Sassuolo

73%

Draw or Sassuolo

61%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+

18%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals

74%

Cagliari 2+ goals

38%

Cagliari 3+ goals

15%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

70%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

34%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)

54%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 0.96 + Sassuolo defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sassuolo attack 1.15 + Cagliari defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cagliari scores more

39%

level

27%

Sassuolo scores more

34%

Cagliari at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

73

Manuel Locatelli

Sassuolo · M

8.2

Match Events

12'

F. Caputo

22'

A. Carboni

30'

P. Farago

46'

V. Birsa← R. Ladinetti

46'

G. Pereiro← G. Simeone

48'

A. Carboni

48'

A. Carboni

63'

Joao Pedro↳ M. Rog

71'

H. Traore← G. Raspadori

71'

L. Haraslin← A. Ghion

72'

M. Muldur← G. Magnani

72'

Marlon

83'

M. Rog

86'

G. Ferrari

89'

M. Rog← R. Klavan

90'

F. Djuricic← G. Manzari

90'

Rogerio← G. Kyriakopoulos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CagliariSassuolo

Overview

22%Possession78%

2Total Shots11

0Corners9

14Fouls15

Shots

2Total Shots11

1On Target2

1Off Target3

0Blocked6

1Inside Box6

1Outside Box5

Passing

22%Possession78%

219Total Passes752

157Accurate Passes688

72%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3