Cagliari 2–2 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cagliari

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sassuolo

L. Pavoletti 73', 10'

K. Boateng 90+9' (pen)

D. Berardi 53'

8/26/2018

Serie A · Round 2Sardegna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Cagliari38%

×Draw27%

Sassuolo35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CagliariExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.25

Cagliari

1.32

Sassuolo

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 34 away

1.01

creates per match

1.23

1.27

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Cagliari

1.01

Sassuolo

1.23

allows per match

Cagliari

1.27

Sassuolo

1.64

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Cagliari+0.13scores more

Sassuolo+0.01on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw

65%

Cagliari or Sassuolo

73%

Draw or Sassuolo

62%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+

17%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals

73%

Cagliari 2+ goals

38%

Cagliari 3+ goals

15%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

71%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

36%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)

52%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 28 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.64 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 1.01 + Sassuolo defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sassuolo attack 1.23 + Cagliari defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cagliari scores more

38%

level

27%

Sassuolo scores more

35%

Cagliari at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

L. Pavoletti

Cagliari · F

8.4

Match Events

10'

L. Pavoletti↳ S. Padoin

33'

34'

53'

57'

61'

62'

68'

69'

J. Boga← F. Di Francesco

70'

Kevin-Prince Boateng

71'

F. Bradarić← L. Cigarini

71'

Diego Farias← M. Sau

73'

L. Pavoletti↳ F. Bradarić

79'

K. Babacar← Pol Lirola

84'

90'

90'

90'

90+9'

K. BoatengPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CagliariSassuolo

Overview

41%Possession59%

15Total Shots13

7Corners2

14Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots13

6On Target5

6Off Target6

3Blocked2

12Inside Box9

3Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

346Total Passes512

271Accurate Passes426

78%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls16

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Serie A: Cagliari 2–2 Sassuolo

Cagliari and Sassuolo drew 2-2 in Serie A on August 26, 2018.

Goals: L. Pavoletti (10', 73'), D. Berardi (53'), K. Boateng (90+9' pen).

Sassuolo controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at Sardegna Arena in Cagliari.

Cagliari vs Sassuolo — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Cagliari 2–2 Sassuolo