Cagliari 4–3 Parma: Result & Stats | Serie A

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CagliariExpected goals in this matchParma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.03

Cagliari

1.28

Parma

1.03

Cagliari creates 24% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

0.96

creates per match

0.80

1.26

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Cagliari

0.96

Parma

0.80

allows per match

Cagliari

1.26

Parma

1.60

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Cagliari+0.12scores more

Parma-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Parma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw

70%

Cagliari or Parma

72%

Draw or Parma

58%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+

19%

Parma wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals

72%

Cagliari 2+ goals

37%

Cagliari 3+ goals

14%

Parma 1+ goals

64%

Parma 2+ goals

28%

Parma 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)

59%

Parma (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

Parma away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 0.96 + Parma defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.28

Parma attack 0.80 + Cagliari defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cagliari scores more

42%

level

28%

Parma scores more

30%

Cagliari at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

G. Pereiro

Cagliari · M

8.9

Match Events

5'

G. Pezzella

24'

Giuseppe Pezzella

26'

Gabriele ZappaGoal cancelled

29'

Răzvan Marin

31'

J. Kucka↳ A. Cornelius

39'

L. Pavoletti↳ A. Carboni

46'

Alfred Duncan

46'

V. Mihăilă← J. Kucka

58'

Jasmin Kurtić

58'

C. Lykogiannis← G. Zappa

59'

D. Man

60'

M. Busi← V. Laurini

64'

G. Simeone← A. Duncan

64'

G. Pereiro← D. Rugani

66'

R. Marin↳ G. Pereiro

72'

G. Pellè← A. Cornelius

72'

L. Valenti← D. Man

78'

D. Dierckx← G. Pezzella

80'

83'

87'

90+1'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CagliariParma

Overview

64%Possession36%

20Total Shots11

0Corners4

14Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots11

5On Target5

9Off Target3

6Blocked3

10Inside Box8

10Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

536Total Passes305

452Accurate Passes225

84%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls12

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Serie A: Cagliari 4–3 Parma

Cagliari beat Parma 4-3 in Serie A on April 17, 2021.

Goals: G. Pezzella (5'), J. Kucka (31'), L. Pavoletti (39'), D. Man (59'), R. Marin (66'), G. Pereiro (90+1'), A. Cerri (90+4').

Cagliari controlled possession (64%) and registered 20 shots to 11.

The match was played at Sardegna Arena in Cagliari.

Cagliari vs Parma — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Cagliari 4–3 Parma