Cagliari 2–2 Parma: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cagliari

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Parma

Giovanni Simeone 53'

João Pedro 19'

Andreas Cornelius 90'

Juraj Kucka 42'

2/1/2020

Serie A · Round 22Sardegna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Cagliari42%

×Draw28%

Parma30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CagliariExpected goals in this matchParma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.03

Cagliari

1.28

Parma

1.03

Cagliari creates 24% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

0.96

creates per match

0.80

1.26

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Cagliari

0.96

Parma

0.80

allows per match

Cagliari

1.26

Parma

1.60

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Cagliari+0.12scores more

Parma-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Parma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw

70%

Cagliari or Parma

72%

Draw or Parma

58%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+

19%

Parma wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals

72%

Cagliari 2+ goals

37%

Cagliari 3+ goals

14%

Parma 1+ goals

64%

Parma 2+ goals

28%

Parma 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)

59%

Parma (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

Parma away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 0.96 + Parma defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.28

Parma attack 0.80 + Cagliari defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cagliari scores more

42%

level

28%

Parma scores more

30%

Cagliari at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

Giovanni Simeone

Cagliari · F

8.5

Match Events

19'

João Pedro↳ Giovanni Simeone

34'

Matteo Darmian

42'

Juraj Kucka↳ Gastón Brugman

52'

Riccardo Gagliolo

53'

Giovanni Simeone↳ Luca Pellegrini

53'

João PedroMissed penalty

57'

Gianluca Caprari← Luca Siligardi

69'

Luca Cigarini

72'

Christian Oliva← Luca Cigarini

77'

Nahitan Nández

80'

Mattia Sprocati← Gastón Brugman

84'

Alberto Paloschi← Giovanni Simeone

87'

Radja Nainggolan

90'

Andreas Cornelius↳ Jasmin Kurtić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CagliariParma

Overview

52%Possession48%

20Total Shots16

8Corners7

16Fouls14

Shots

20Total Shots16

8On Target4

7Off Target7

5Blocked5

12Inside Box9

8Outside Box7

Passing

52%Possession48%

381Total Passes340

300Accurate Passes262

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0