Cagliari 2–1 Parma: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cagliari

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Parma

L. Pavoletti 85', 65'

J. Kucka 40'

2/16/2019

Serie A · Round 24Sardegna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Cagliari43%

×Draw28%

Parma30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CagliariExpected goals in this matchParma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.04

Cagliari

1.31

Parma

1.04

Cagliari creates 26% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 26 away

1.01

creates per match

0.80

1.27

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Cagliari

1.01

Parma

0.80

allows per match

Cagliari

1.27

Parma

1.60

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Cagliari+0.13scores more

Parma-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Parma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw

70%

Cagliari or Parma

72%

Draw or Parma

57%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+

20%

Parma wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals

73%

Cagliari 2+ goals

38%

Cagliari 3+ goals

14%

Parma 1+ goals

65%

Parma 2+ goals

28%

Parma 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)

59%

Parma (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 28 matches

Parma away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 1.01 + Parma defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.31

Parma attack 0.80 + Cagliari defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cagliari scores more

43%

level

28%

Parma scores more

30%

Cagliari at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

L. Pavoletti

Cagliari · F

8.8

Match Events

32'

C. Lykogiannis← Luca Pellegrini

36'

40'

46'

52'

56'

K. Despodov← A. Deiola

64'

L. Rigoni← L. Štulac

65'

L. Pavoletti↳ L. Ceppitelli

78'

Leonardo Pavoletti

85'

L. Pavoletti↳ N. Barella

87'

L. Siligardi← J. Biabiany

89'

F. Ceravolo← A. Barillà

90'

João Pedro

90'

João Pedro

90'

João Pedro

90+2'

F. Bradarić← L. Cigarini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CagliariParma

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots9

1Corners4

22Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots9

3On Target3

11Off Target3

2Blocked3

8Inside Box6

8Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

472Total Passes335

357Accurate Passes231

76%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

22Fouls11

5Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides5

Match Recap: Cagliari vs Parma

Cagliari beat Parma 2-1 in Serie A on February 16, 2019.

Goals: J. Kucka (40'), L. Pavoletti (65', 85').

Cagliari controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Sardegna Arena in Cagliari.

Cagliari vs Parma — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cagliari vs Parma