Cagliari 0–1 Napoli: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cagliari

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Napoli

A. Milik 90+1'

12/16/2018

Serie A · Round 16Sardegna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Cagliari27%

×Draw28%

Napoli46%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CagliariExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.34

Cagliari

0.95

Napoli

1.34

Napoli creates 41% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 32 away

1.01

creates per match

1.42

1.27

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Cagliari

1.01

Napoli

1.42

allows per match

Cagliari

1.27

Napoli

0.89

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Cagliari+0.13scores more

Napoli+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw

54%

Cagliari or Napoli

72%

Draw or Napoli

73%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+

9%

Napoli wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals

61%

Cagliari 2+ goals

25%

Cagliari 3+ goals

7%

Napoli 1+ goals

74%

Napoli 2+ goals

39%

Napoli 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)

37%

Napoli (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 28 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.89 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 1.01 + Napoli defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Napoli attack 1.42 + Cagliari defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cagliari scores more

27%

level

28%

Napoli scores more

46%

Napoli at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

A. Milik

Napoli · F

8.0

Match Events

48'

Simone Padoin

62'

D. Mertens← A. Diawara

69'

71'

72'

79'

80'

M. Andreolli← F. Romagna

80'

José Callejón← K. Malcuit

87'

L. Cigarini← F. Pisacane

89'

Marco Sau

90+1'

A. Milik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CagliariNapoli

Overview

38%Possession62%

10Total Shots18

2Corners10

15Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots18

2On Target5

4Off Target10

4Blocked3

5Inside Box11

5Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

341Total Passes545

247Accurate Passes452

72%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3