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Cagliari vs Lecce — Serie A 2026

Cagliari
Cagliari
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lecce
Lecce
7/12/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 32Sardegna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Cagliari43%
×Draw28%
Lecce29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cagliari
1.28
Lecce
1.00

Cagliari creates 28% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

creates per match

Cagliari
0.96
Lecce
0.74

allows per match

Cagliari
1.26
Lecce
1.60

finishing

Cagliari+0.12scores more
Lecce-0.18scores less

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Lecce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw
71%
Cagliari or Lecce
72%
Draw or Lecce
57%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+
19%
Lecce wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals
72%
Cagliari 2+ goals
37%
Cagliari 3+ goals
14%
Lecce 1+ goals
63%
Lecce 2+ goals
26%
Lecce 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)
60%
Lecce (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

Lecce away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.60 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 0.96 + Lecce defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.28

Lecce attack 0.74 + Cagliari defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cagliari scores more
43%
level
28%
Lecce scores more
29%

Cagliari at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
Alessio CragnoCagliariCagliari · G
8.9

Match Events

30'
R. Nainggolan← D. Ragatzu
32'
F. Falco← D. Farias
40'
M. Calderoni← A. Rispoli
68'
A. Ionita← V. Birsa
68'
F. Mattiello← P. Farago
74'
J. Petriccione← A. Deiola
74'
K. Babacar← Z. Majer
75'
A. Deiola
84'
Joao Pedro← G. Pereiro
90'
V. Birsa

Possession

53%Cagliari

Shots

19Cagliari

Pass accuracy

51%Cagliari

Statistics

CagliariLecce
Overview
53%Possession47%
19Total Shots21
6Corners7
10Fouls7
Shots
19Total Shots21
5On Target8
9Off Target6
5Blocked7
13Inside Box10
6Outside Box11
Passing
53%Possession47%
478Total Passes428
417Accurate Passes360
87%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
8Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls7
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides3

Match Recap: Cagliari vs Lecce

Cagliari and Lecce drew 0-0 in Serie A on July 12, 2020.

Cagliari controlled possession (53%) and registered 19 shots to 21.

The match was played at Sardegna Arena in Cagliari.