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Cagliari vs Lazio — Serie A 2026

Cagliari
Cagliari
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Lazio
Lazio
Giovanni Simeone 8'
Felipe Caicedo 90'
Luis Alberto 90'
12/16/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 16Sardegna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Cagliari34%
×Draw28%
Lazio38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cagliari
1.10
Lazio
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

creates per match

Cagliari
0.96
Lazio
1.10

allows per match

Cagliari
1.26
Lazio
1.25

finishing

Cagliari+0.12scores more
Lazio-0.06on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw
62%
Cagliari or Lazio
72%
Draw or Lazio
66%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+
13%
Lazio wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals
67%
Cagliari 2+ goals
30%
Cagliari 3+ goals
10%
Lazio 1+ goals
69%
Lazio 2+ goals
33%
Lazio 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)
47%
Lazio (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.25 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 0.96 + Lazio defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Lazio attack 1.10 + Cagliari defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cagliari scores more
34%
level
28%
Lazio scores more
38%

Lazio at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Luis AlbertoLazioLazio · M
8.1

Match Events

8'
Giovanni Simeone↳ João Pedro
20'
Luis Alberto
21'
Nahitan Nández
32'
Ragnar Klavan
46'
Artur Ioniță
56'
Fabio Pisacane
56'
Jony← Senad Lulić
64'
Danilo Cataldi← Lucas Leiva
69'
Danilo Cataldi
80'
Christian Oliva← Luca Cigarini
80'
Felipe Caicedo← Ştefan Radu
83'
Paolo Faragò← Artur Ioniță
90'
Felipe Caicedo↳ Jony
90'
Luis Alberto
90'
Felipe Caicedo
90'
Alessandro Deiola← Radja Nainggolan

Possession

39%Cagliari

Shots

13Cagliari

Pass accuracy

47%Cagliari

Statistics

CagliariLazio
Overview
39%Possession61%
13Total Shots16
2Corners9
12Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots16
3On Target5
6Off Target7
4Blocked4
8Inside Box13
5Outside Box3
Passing
39%Possession61%
346Total Passes504
259Accurate Passes427
75%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls10
4Yellow Cards3
3Offsides4

Serie A: Cagliari 1–2 Lazio

Lazio beat Cagliari 2-1 in Serie A on December 16, 2019.

Goals: Giovanni Simeone (8'), Felipe Caicedo (90'), Luis Alberto (90').

Lazio controlled possession (61%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at Sardegna Arena in Cagliari.