Cagliari 0–0 Genoa: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cagliari

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Genoa

3/1/2023

Serie B · Round 27Unipol Domus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cagliari40%

×Draw28%

Genoa32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CagliariExpected goals in this matchGenoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.10

Cagliari

1.25

Genoa

1.10

Cagliari creates 14% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 19 away

1.55

creates per match

1.26

0.95

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Cagliari

1.55

Genoa

1.26

allows per match

Cagliari

0.95

Genoa

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cagliari+0.00on par

Genoa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Genoa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw

68%

Cagliari or Genoa

72%

Draw or Genoa

60%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+

17%

Genoa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals

71%

Cagliari 2+ goals

36%

Cagliari 3+ goals

13%

Genoa 1+ goals

67%

Genoa 2+ goals

30%

Genoa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)

55%

Genoa (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 1.55 + Genoa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.25

Genoa attack 1.26 + Cagliari defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cagliari scores more

40%

level

28%

Genoa scores more

32%

Cagliari at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff