Cagliari 1–0 Genoa: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cagliari

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Genoa

Diego Farias 45+3'

12/26/2018

Serie A · Round 18Sardegna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Cagliari38%

×Draw28%

Genoa34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CagliariExpected goals in this matchGenoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.16

Cagliari

1.23

Genoa

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

0.99

creates per match

1.04

1.27

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Cagliari

0.99

Genoa

1.04

allows per match

Cagliari

1.27

Genoa

1.47

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Cagliari+0.16scores more

Genoa-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Genoa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw

66%

Cagliari or Genoa

72%

Draw or Genoa

62%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+

16%

Genoa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals

71%

Cagliari 2+ goals

35%

Cagliari 3+ goals

13%

Genoa 1+ goals

69%

Genoa 2+ goals

32%

Genoa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)

52%

Genoa (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 27 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 0.99 + Genoa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Genoa attack 1.04 + Cagliari defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cagliari scores more

38%

level

28%

Genoa scores more

34%

Cagliari at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

A. Cragno

Cagliari · G

7.7

Match Events

1'

Cristian Romero

16'

A. Ioniţă← João Pedro

41'

Esteban Rolón

45'

Diego Farias

45+3'

Diego Farias↳ D. Srna

46'

C. Kouamé← Sandro

65'

Paolo Faragò

66'

A. Favilli← C. Romero

74'

M. Sau← Diego Farias

75'

Luca Cigarini

77'

Miguel Veloso← O. Hiljemark

82'

Krzysztof Piątek

87'

F. Bradarić← L. Cigarini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CagliariGenoa

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots12

4Corners4

8Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots12

4On Target4

6Off Target6

5Blocked2

11Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

420Total Passes413

317Accurate Passes317

75%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Serie A: Cagliari 1–0 Genoa

Cagliari beat Genoa 1-0 in Serie A on December 26, 2018.

Goals: Diego Farias (45+3').

Genoa controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at Sardegna Arena in Cagliari.

Cagliari vs Genoa — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Cagliari 1–0 Genoa