Cagliari 0–0 Fiorentina: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cagliari

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fiorentina

5/12/2021

Serie A · Round 36Sardegna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Cagliari36%

×Draw28%

Fiorentina36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CagliariExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.19

Cagliari

1.20

Fiorentina

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

0.96

creates per match

1.11

1.26

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Cagliari

0.96

Fiorentina

1.11

allows per match

Cagliari

1.26

Fiorentina

1.44

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Cagliari+0.12scores more

Fiorentina+0.05on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw

64%

Cagliari or Fiorentina

72%

Draw or Fiorentina

64%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+

15%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals

70%

Cagliari 2+ goals

34%

Cagliari 3+ goals

12%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

70%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

33%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)

50%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 0.96 + Fiorentina defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.20

Fiorentina attack 1.11 + Cagliari defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Cagliari scores more

36%

level

28%

Fiorentina scores more

36%

Cagliari at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

N. Nández

Cagliari · M

7.5

Match Events

27'

Erick Pulgar

35'

Charalampos Lykogiannis

46'

A. Carboni← G. Zappa

46'

P. Terracciano← B. Drągowski

63'

G. Castrovilli← C. Kouamé

67'

Martín Cáceres

69'

A. Deiola← R. Marin

70'

José Callejón← G. Bonaventura

71'

L. Venuti← M. Cáceres

86'

A. Cerri← C. Lykogiannis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CagliariFiorentina

Overview

56%Possession44%

8Total Shots2

3Corners1

18Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots2

0On Target0

5Off Target2

3Blocked0

7Inside Box1

1Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

465Total Passes367

395Accurate Passes301

85%Pass Accuracy82%

Discipline

18Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides0