Cagliari 2–1 Bologna: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cagliari

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bologna

1/11/2022

Serie A · Round 21Unipol Domus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Cagliari33%

×Draw29%

Bologna38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CagliariExpected goals in this matchBologna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.13

Cagliari

1.04

Bologna

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 23 away

0.96

creates per match

0.99

1.26

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Cagliari

0.96

Bologna

0.99

allows per match

Cagliari

1.26

Bologna

1.11

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.53scores more than expected

finishing

Cagliari+0.12scores more

Bologna+0.53scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Bologna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw

62%

Cagliari or Bologna

71%

Draw or Bologna

67%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+

13%

Bologna wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals

65%

Cagliari 2+ goals

28%

Cagliari 3+ goals

9%

Bologna 1+ goals

68%

Bologna 2+ goals

31%

Bologna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)

47%

Bologna (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

Bologna away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 0.96 + Bologna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Bologna attack 0.99 + Cagliari defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cagliari scores more

33%

level

29%

Bologna scores more

38%

Bologna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bologna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff