Cagliari 1–2 Atalanta: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cagliari

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Atalanta

11/6/2021

Serie A · Round 12Unipol Domus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Cagliari31%

×Draw27%

Atalanta42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CagliariExpected goals in this matchAtalanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.33

Cagliari

1.09

Atalanta

1.33

Atalanta creates 22% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

0.96

creates per match

1.40

1.26

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Cagliari

0.96

Atalanta

1.40

allows per match

Cagliari

1.26

Atalanta

1.22

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Cagliari+0.12scores more

Atalanta+0.04on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Atalanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw

58%

Cagliari or Atalanta

73%

Draw or Atalanta

69%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+

12%

Atalanta wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals

66%

Cagliari 2+ goals

30%

Cagliari 3+ goals

10%

Atalanta 1+ goals

74%

Atalanta 2+ goals

38%

Atalanta 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)

42%

Atalanta (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 0.96 + Atalanta defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Atalanta attack 1.40 + Cagliari defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cagliari scores more

31%

level

27%

Atalanta scores more

42%

Atalanta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff