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Cagliari vs Atalanta — Serie A 2026

Cagliari
Cagliari
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atalanta
Atalanta
H. Hateboer 50'
2/4/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 22Sardegna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Cagliari32%
×Draw28%
Atalanta40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cagliari
1.12
Atalanta
1.28

Atalanta creates 14% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 31 away

creates per match

Cagliari
1.01
Atalanta
1.29

allows per match

Cagliari
1.27
Atalanta
1.23

finishing

Cagliari+0.13scores more
Atalanta+0.03on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Atalanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw
60%
Cagliari or Atalanta
72%
Draw or Atalanta
68%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+
13%
Atalanta wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals
67%
Cagliari 2+ goals
31%
Cagliari 3+ goals
10%
Atalanta 1+ goals
72%
Atalanta 2+ goals
37%
Atalanta 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)
45%
Atalanta (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 28 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 1.01 + Atalanta defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.12

Atalanta attack 1.29 + Cagliari defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cagliari scores more
32%
level
28%
Atalanta scores more
40%

Atalanta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
H. HateboerAtalantaAtalanta · M
7.9

Match Events

14'
João Pedro← V. Birsa
50'
H. Hateboer
61'
J. Iličić← A. Gómez
65'
C. Théréau← L. Cigarini
73'
Luca Pellegrini← S. Padoin
86'
Mario Pašalić
90'
Etrit Berisha

Possession

39%Cagliari

Shots

8Cagliari

Pass accuracy

47%Cagliari

Statistics

CagliariAtalanta
Overview
39%Possession61%
8Total Shots10
2Corners4
18Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots10
2On Target6
5Off Target2
1Blocked2
6Inside Box7
2Outside Box3
Passing
39%Possession61%
418Total Passes638
323Accurate Passes555
77%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls11
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Cagliari vs Atalanta

Atalanta beat Cagliari 1-0 in Serie A on February 4, 2019.

Goals: H. Hateboer (50').

Atalanta controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Sardegna Arena in Cagliari.