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Cagliari vs AC Milan — Serie A 2018

Cagliari
Cagliari
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AC Milan
AC Milan
3/19/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 30Unipol Domus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Cagliari28%
×Draw27%
AC Milan45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cagliari
1.06
AC Milan
1.42

AC Milan creates 34% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

creates per match

Cagliari
0.96
AC Milan
1.57

allows per match

Cagliari
1.26
AC Milan
1.17

finishing

Cagliari+0.12scores more
AC Milan-0.13scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw
55%
Cagliari or AC Milan
73%
Draw or AC Milan
72%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+
11%
AC Milan wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals
65%
Cagliari 2+ goals
29%
Cagliari 3+ goals
9%
AC Milan 1+ goals
76%
AC Milan 2+ goals
41%
AC Milan 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)
38%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.17 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 0.96 + AC Milan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

AC Milan attack 1.57 + Cagliari defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cagliari scores more
28%
level
27%
AC Milan scores more
45%

AC Milan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cagliari vs AC Milan

AC Milan beat Cagliari 1-0 in Serie A on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Unipol Domus in Cagliari.