Cagliari 0–2 AC Milan: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cagliari

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

AC Milan

Zlatan Ibrahimović 64'

Rafael Leão 46'

1/11/2020

Serie A · Round 19Sardegna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Cagliari28%

×Draw27%

AC Milan45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CagliariExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.40

Cagliari

1.05

AC Milan

1.40

AC Milan creates 33% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

0.96

creates per match

1.53

1.26

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Cagliari

0.96

AC Milan

1.53

allows per match

Cagliari

1.26

AC Milan

1.14

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Cagliari+0.12scores more

AC Milan-0.01on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw

55%

Cagliari or AC Milan

73%

Draw or AC Milan

72%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+

11%

AC Milan wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals

65%

Cagliari 2+ goals

28%

Cagliari 3+ goals

9%

AC Milan 1+ goals

75%

AC Milan 2+ goals

41%

AC Milan 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)

39%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.14 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 0.96 + AC Milan defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.05

AC Milan attack 1.53 + Cagliari defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cagliari scores more

28%

level

27%

AC Milan scores more

45%

AC Milan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Theo Hernández

AC Milan · D

7.9

Match Events

26'

Luca Cigarini

39'

Nahitan Nández

46'

Rafael Leão↳ Samu Castillejo

60'

Luca Pellegrini

61'

Ismaël Bennacer

64'

Zlatan Ibrahimović↳ Theo Hernández

64'

Giacomo Bonaventura← Hakan Çalhanoğlu

69'

Alberto Cerri← Giovanni Simeone

73'

Andrea Conti← Davide Calabria

76'

Lucas Castro← Marko Rog

76'

Artur Ioniță← Nahitan Nández

90'

Ante Rebić← Rafael Leão

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CagliariAC

Overview

57%Possession43%

9Total Shots13

3Corners6

14Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots13

2On Target4

5Off Target5

2Blocked4

5Inside Box8

4Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

518Total Passes380

438Accurate Passes307

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2