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Cagliari U20 vs Genoa U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Cagliari U20
Cagliari U20
Preview
09:00
Genoa U20
Genoa U20
4/24/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 34
45%
Cagliari U20
model favours
45%27%29%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cagliari U2045%
×Draw27%
Genoa U2029%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cagliari U20
1.42
Genoa U20
1.09

Cagliari U20 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Cagliari U20
1.39
Genoa U20
1.32

allows per match

Cagliari U20
0.87
Genoa U20
1.45

finishing

Cagliari U20+0.00on par
Genoa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari U20 ↓

Genoa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cagliari U20 or draw
71%
Cagliari U20 or Genoa U20
73%
Draw or Genoa U20
55%

Winning margin

Cagliari U20 wins by 2+
21%
Genoa U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cagliari U20 1+ goals
76%
Cagliari U20 2+ goals
41%
Cagliari U20 3+ goals
17%
Genoa U20 1+ goals
66%
Genoa U20 2+ goals
30%
Genoa U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cagliari U20 (draw refunded)
61%
Genoa U20 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari U20 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 38 matches

Genoa U20 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari U20 attack 1.39 + Genoa U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Genoa U20 attack 1.32 + Cagliari U20 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cagliari U20 scores more
45%
level
27%
Genoa U20 scores more
29%

Cagliari U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cagliari U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
WDDWL
U20
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cagliari U20 vs Genoa U20 — Match Preview

Cagliari U20 face Genoa U20 on April 24, 2027 in this Campionato Primavera - 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.