Caerau (Ely) 2–4 Carmarthen Town: Result & Stats

Caerau (Ely)

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Carmarthen Town

E. Deacon 84'

D. Bowen 63'

L. Thomas 87', 16', 8'

N. Daley 32'

9/22/2023

League #111 · South - 7Cwrt-yr-Ala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Caerau (Ely)39%

×Draw21%

Carmarthen Town40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Caerau (Ely)Expected goals in this matchCarmarthen Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.96

Caerau (Ely)

1.95

Carmarthen Town

1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

1.79

creates per match

2.44

1.47

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Caerau (Ely)

1.79

Carmarthen Town

2.44

allows per match

Caerau (Ely)

1.47

Carmarthen Town

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caerau (Ely)+0.00on par

Carmarthen Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caerau (Ely) ↓

Carmarthen Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Caerau (Ely) or draw

60%

Caerau (Ely) or Carmarthen Town

79%

Draw or Carmarthen Town

61%

Winning margin

Caerau (Ely) wins by 2+

21%

Carmarthen Town wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Caerau (Ely) 1+ goals

86%

Caerau (Ely) 2+ goals

58%

Caerau (Ely) 3+ goals

31%

Carmarthen Town 1+ goals

86%

Carmarthen Town 2+ goals

58%

Carmarthen Town 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Caerau (Ely) (draw refunded)

50%

Carmarthen Town (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caerau (Ely) at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Carmarthen Town away — creates 2.44, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caerau (Ely) attack 1.79 + Carmarthen Town defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.95

Carmarthen Town attack 2.44 + Caerau (Ely) defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Caerau (Ely) scores more

39%

level

21%

Carmarthen Town scores more

40%

Carmarthen Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Carmarthen Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

L. Thomas

16'

L. Thomas

32'

N. Daley

63'

D. Bowen

84'

E. Deacon

87'

L. Thomas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff