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Cadiz vs Leicester — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Cadiz
Cadiz
Preview
17:00
Leicester
Leicester
7/22/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
47%
Leicester
model favours
29%23%47%

Leicester have scored in 12 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cadiz29%
×Draw23%
Leicester47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cadiz
1.33
Leicester
1.75

Leicester creates 32% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Cadiz
2.00
Leicester
1.83

allows per match

Cadiz
1.67
Leicester
0.67

finishing

Cadiz+0.00on par
Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw
53%
Cadiz or Leicester
77%
Draw or Leicester
71%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+
13%
Leicester wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals
74%
Cadiz 2+ goals
38%
Cadiz 3+ goals
15%
Leicester 1+ goals
83%
Leicester 2+ goals
52%
Leicester 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)
38%
Leicester (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 2.00 + Leicester defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Leicester attack 1.83 + Cadiz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cadiz scores more
29%
level
23%
Leicester scores more
47%

Leicester at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leicester have won 3 in a row
  • Cadiz and Leicester have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Cadiz
LWLWD
Leicester
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cadiz vs Leicester — Match Preview

Cadiz face Leicester on July 22, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.