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Cacereño vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cacereño
Cacereño
Preview
16:00
Real Unión
Real Unión
12/6/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Estadio Principe Felipe
41%
Cacereño
model favours
41%27%31%

Real Unión score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cacereño41%
×Draw27%
Real Unión31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cacereño
1.33
Real Unión
1.12

Cacereño creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 56 away

creates per match

Cacereño
1.00
Real Unión
0.98

allows per match

Cacereño
1.26
Real Unión
1.66

finishing

Cacereño+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cacereño ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cacereño or draw
69%
Cacereño or Real Unión
73%
Draw or Real Unión
59%

Winning margin

Cacereño wins by 2+
19%
Real Unión wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cacereño 1+ goals
74%
Cacereño 2+ goals
38%
Cacereño 3+ goals
15%
Real Unión 1+ goals
67%
Real Unión 2+ goals
31%
Real Unión 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cacereño (draw refunded)
57%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cacereño at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cacereño attack 1.00 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.33

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Cacereño defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cacereño scores more
41%
level
27%
Real Unión scores more
31%

Cacereño at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cacereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 79% of Real Unión’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Real Unión have scored in 7 games running
  • Cacereño and Real Unión have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Cacereño
LWWWD
Unión
WLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cacereño face Real Unión (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Cacereño hosting Real Unión. Match starts December 6, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cacereño host Real Unión at Estadio Principe Felipe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.