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Cacereño vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cacereño
Cacereño
Preview
15:00
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
9/13/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Estadio Principe Felipe
37%
Cultural Leonesa
model favours
35%28%37%

Cacereño and Cultural Leonesa have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cacereño35%
×Draw28%
Cultural Leonesa37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cacereño
1.16
Cultural Leonesa
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 88 away

creates per match

Cacereño
1.00
Cultural Leonesa
1.16

allows per match

Cacereño
1.26
Cultural Leonesa
1.31

finishing

Cacereño+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cacereño ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cacereño or draw
63%
Cacereño or Cultural Leonesa
72%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
65%

Winning margin

Cacereño wins by 2+
14%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cacereño 1+ goals
69%
Cacereño 2+ goals
32%
Cacereño 3+ goals
11%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
70%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
34%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cacereño (draw refunded)
48%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cacereño at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cacereño attack 1.00 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Cacereño defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cacereño scores more
35%
level
28%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
37%

Cultural Leonesa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cacereño
LWWWD
Leonesa
DLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cacereño face Cultural Leonesa (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Cacereño hosting Cultural Leonesa. Match starts September 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cacereño host Cultural Leonesa at Estadio Principe Felipe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.