Cabinteely 2–2 Cobh Ramblers: Result & Stats

Cabinteely

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Cobh Ramblers

6/8/2019

First Division · Round 16Stradbrook Road (Dublin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cabinteely36%

×Draw26%

Cobh Ramblers38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CabinteelyExpected goals in this matchCobh Ramblers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.39

Cabinteely

1.35

Cobh Ramblers

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 120 away

1.00

creates per match

1.23

1.54

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Cabinteely

1.00

Cobh Ramblers

1.23

allows per match

Cabinteely

1.54

Cobh Ramblers

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cabinteely+0.00on par

Cobh Ramblers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cabinteely ↓

Cobh Ramblers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cabinteely or draw

62%

Cabinteely or Cobh Ramblers

74%

Draw or Cobh Ramblers

64%

Winning margin

Cabinteely wins by 2+

16%

Cobh Ramblers wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Cabinteely 1+ goals

74%

Cabinteely 2+ goals

39%

Cabinteely 3+ goals

15%

Cobh Ramblers 1+ goals

75%

Cobh Ramblers 2+ goals

40%

Cobh Ramblers 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cabinteely (draw refunded)

49%

Cobh Ramblers (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cabinteely at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.54 · 39 matches

Cobh Ramblers away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.71 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cabinteely attack 1.00 + Cobh Ramblers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Cobh Ramblers attack 1.23 + Cabinteely defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cabinteely scores more

36%

level

26%

Cobh Ramblers scores more

38%

Cobh Ramblers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cobh Ramblers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff