Cabinteely 3–1 Athlone Town: Result & Stats

Cabinteely

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Athlone Town

9/13/2019

First Division · Round 26Stradbrook Road (Dublin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cabinteely41%

×Draw26%

Athlone Town34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CabinteelyExpected goals in this matchAthlone Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.29

Cabinteely

1.44

Athlone Town

1.29

Cabinteely creates 12% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 119 away

1.00

creates per match

1.04

1.54

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Cabinteely

1.00

Athlone Town

1.04

allows per match

Cabinteely

1.54

Athlone Town

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cabinteely+0.00on par

Athlone Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cabinteely ↓

Athlone Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cabinteely or draw

66%

Cabinteely or Athlone Town

74%

Draw or Athlone Town

59%

Winning margin

Cabinteely wins by 2+

19%

Athlone Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cabinteely 1+ goals

76%

Cabinteely 2+ goals

42%

Cabinteely 3+ goals

18%

Athlone Town 1+ goals

72%

Athlone Town 2+ goals

37%

Athlone Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cabinteely (draw refunded)

55%

Athlone Town (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cabinteely at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.54 · 39 matches

Athlone Town away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.88 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cabinteely attack 1.00 + Athlone Town defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Athlone Town attack 1.04 + Cabinteely defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cabinteely scores more

41%

level

26%

Athlone Town scores more

34%

Cabinteely at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cabinteely will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff