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CA Furrial vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz — Segunda División 2018

CA Furrial
CA Furrial
PST
19:30
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
6/11/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 5Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

CA Furrial38%
×Draw27%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Furrial
1.29
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 84 away

creates per match

CA Furrial
1.19
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
0.99

allows per match

CA Furrial
1.52
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
1.40

finishing

CA Furrial+0.00on par
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Furrial ↓

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CA Furrial or draw
64%
CA Furrial or Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
73%
Draw or Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
62%

Winning margin

CA Furrial wins by 2+
17%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

CA Furrial 1+ goals
72%
CA Furrial 2+ goals
37%
CA Furrial 3+ goals
14%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

CA Furrial (draw refunded)
51%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Furrial at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Furrial attack 1.19 + Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz attack 0.99 + CA Furrial defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CA Furrial scores more
38%
level
27%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz scores more
36%

CA Furrial at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CA Furrial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CA Furrial face Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (Segunda División)

Segunda División returns with CA Furrial hosting Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz. Match starts June 11, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

CA Furrial host Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.