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CA Estudiantes vs Ciudad de Bolívar — Primera Nacional 2026

CA Estudiantes
CA Estudiantes
Preview
18:00
Ciudad de Bolívar
Ciudad de Bolívar
7/25/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 22Estadio Ciudad de Caseros
37%
CA Estudiantes
model favours
37%36%27%

CA Estudiantes are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

0–0
likely score
80%
under 2.5 goals
28%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

CA Estudiantes37%
×Draw36%
Ciudad de Bolívar27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Estudiantes
0.84
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.68

CA Estudiantes creates 24% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 10 away

creates per match

CA Estudiantes
1.18
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.80

allows per match

CA Estudiantes
0.55
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.50

finishing

CA Estudiantes+0.00on par
Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Estudiantes ↓

Ciudad de Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–115%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

CA Estudiantes or draw
73%
CA Estudiantes or Ciudad de Bolívar
64%
Draw or Ciudad de Bolívar
63%

Winning margin

CA Estudiantes wins by 2+
12%
Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CA Estudiantes 1+ goals
57%
CA Estudiantes 2+ goals
21%
CA Estudiantes 3+ goals
5%
Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals
49%
Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals
15%
Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

CA Estudiantes (draw refunded)
57%
Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Estudiantes at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.55 · 33 matches

Ciudad de Bolívar away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Estudiantes attack 1.18 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.84

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 0.80 + CA Estudiantes defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CA Estudiantes scores more
37%
level
36%
Ciudad de Bolívar scores more
27%

CA Estudiantes at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CA Estudiantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • CA Estudiantes score first in only 25% of matches
  • 75% of CA Estudiantes’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Estudiantes
WDWWD
Bolívar
LWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CA Estudiantes vs Ciudad de Bolívar — Match Preview

CA Estudiantes face Ciudad de Bolívar on July 25, 2026 in this Primera Nacional fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

CA Estudiantes host Ciudad de Bolívar at Estadio Ciudad de Caseros.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.