CA Bizertin 0–0 Club Africain: Result & Stats | Cup

CA Bizertin

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Club Africain

2/19/2017

Cup · Quarter-finalsStade du 15 Octobre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CA Bizertin47%

×Draw29%

Club Africain24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA BizertinExpected goals in this matchClub Africain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.81

CA Bizertin

1.27

Club Africain

0.81

CA Bizertin creates 57% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.80

creates per match

1.42

0.20

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

CA Bizertin

1.80

Club Africain

1.42

allows per match

CA Bizertin

0.20

Club Africain

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA Bizertin+0.00on par

Club Africain+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Bizertin ↓

Club Africain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CA Bizertin or draw

76%

CA Bizertin or Club Africain

71%

Draw or Club Africain

53%

Winning margin

CA Bizertin wins by 2+

22%

Club Africain wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CA Bizertin 1+ goals

72%

CA Bizertin 2+ goals

36%

CA Bizertin 3+ goals

14%

Club Africain 1+ goals

56%

Club Africain 2+ goals

19%

Club Africain 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CA Bizertin (draw refunded)

67%

Club Africain (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Bizertin at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Club Africain away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Bizertin attack 1.80 + Club Africain defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.27

Club Africain attack 1.42 + CA Bizertin defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CA Bizertin scores more

47%

level

29%

Club Africain scores more

24%

CA Bizertin at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CA Bizertin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff