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Bzenec vs Viktorie Přerov — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Bzenec
Bzenec
PST
14:30
Viktorie Přerov
Viktorie Přerov
5/10/20204. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Round 22Fotbalový Stadión Bzenec (Bzenec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Bzenec56%
×Draw20%
Viktorie Přerov24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bzenec
2.32
Viktorie Přerov
1.46

Bzenec creates 59% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 53 away

creates per match

Bzenec
2.30
Viktorie Přerov
1.51

allows per match

Bzenec
1.41
Viktorie Přerov
2.34

finishing

Bzenec+0.00on par
Viktorie Přerov+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bzenec ↓

Viktorie Přerov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Bzenec or draw
76%
Bzenec or Viktorie Přerov
80%
Draw or Viktorie Přerov
44%

Winning margin

Bzenec wins by 2+
35%
Viktorie Přerov wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bzenec 1+ goals
90%
Bzenec 2+ goals
67%
Bzenec 3+ goals
40%
Viktorie Přerov 1+ goals
77%
Viktorie Přerov 2+ goals
43%
Viktorie Přerov 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bzenec (draw refunded)
70%
Viktorie Přerov (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bzenec at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.41 · 80 matches

Viktorie Přerov away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.34 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bzenec attack 2.30 + Viktorie Přerov defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.32

Viktorie Přerov attack 1.51 + Bzenec defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bzenec scores more
56%
level
20%
Viktorie Přerov scores more
24%

Bzenec at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bzenec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bzenec host Viktorie Přerov

May 10, 2020: Bzenec take on Viktorie Přerov in 4. liga - Divizie E. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bzenec host Viktorie Přerov at Fotbalový Stadión Bzenec (Bzenec).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.