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Bylis vs AF Elbasani — 1st Division 2019

Bylis
Bylis
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
2/26/20241st Division1st Division · Round 22Stadiumi Adush Muçaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bylis45%
×Draw25%
AF Elbasani30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bylis
1.56
AF Elbasani
1.21

Bylis creates 29% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 16 away

creates per match

Bylis
2.06
AF Elbasani
1.88

allows per match

Bylis
0.53
AF Elbasani
1.06

finishing

Bylis+0.00on par
AF Elbasani+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bylis ↓

AF Elbasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bylis or draw
70%
Bylis or AF Elbasani
75%
Draw or AF Elbasani
55%

Winning margin

Bylis wins by 2+
23%
AF Elbasani wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bylis 1+ goals
79%
Bylis 2+ goals
46%
Bylis 3+ goals
21%
AF Elbasani 1+ goals
70%
AF Elbasani 2+ goals
34%
AF Elbasani 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bylis (draw refunded)
61%
AF Elbasani (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bylis at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.53 · 32 matches

AF Elbasani away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bylis attack 2.06 + AF Elbasani defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.56

AF Elbasani attack 1.88 + Bylis defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bylis scores more
45%
level
25%
AF Elbasani scores more
30%

Bylis at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bylis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Bylis 0–0 AF Elbasani

Bylis and AF Elbasani drew 0-0 in 1st Division on February 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Adush Muçaj in Ballsh.