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Buzanada vs Ibarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Buzanada
Buzanada
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ibarra
Ibarra
10/31/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 11Campo Municipal de Fútbol Clementina de Bello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Buzanada53%
×Draw24%
Ibarra22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buzanada
1.67
Ibarra
0.99

Buzanada creates 69% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 77 away

creates per match

Buzanada
1.35
Ibarra
0.88

allows per match

Buzanada
1.09
Ibarra
1.99

finishing

Buzanada+0.00on par
Ibarra+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buzanada ↓

Ibarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Buzanada or draw
78%
Buzanada or Ibarra
76%
Draw or Ibarra
47%

Winning margin

Buzanada wins by 2+
29%
Ibarra wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Buzanada 1+ goals
81%
Buzanada 2+ goals
50%
Buzanada 3+ goals
23%
Ibarra 1+ goals
63%
Ibarra 2+ goals
26%
Ibarra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Buzanada (draw refunded)
70%
Ibarra (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buzanada at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

Ibarra away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.99 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buzanada attack 1.35 + Ibarra defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.67

Ibarra attack 0.88 + Buzanada defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Buzanada scores more
53%
level
24%
Ibarra scores more
22%

Buzanada at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Buzanada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Buzanada 0–2 Ibarra

Ibarra beat Buzanada 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 31, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Clementina de Bello in Buzanada.