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Buxton vs South Shields — League #50 2026

Buxton
Buxton
Preview
15:00
South Shields
South Shields
1/23/2027League #50League #50 · National League North - 28
Big match
39%
Buxton
model favours
39%26%35%

Buxton score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Buxton39%
×Draw26%
South Shields35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buxton
1.34
South Shields
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

creates per match

Buxton
1.23
South Shields
1.50

allows per match

Buxton
1.00
South Shields
1.46

finishing

Buxton+0.00on par
South Shields+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buxton ↓

South Shields →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Buxton or draw
65%
Buxton or South Shields
74%
Draw or South Shields
61%

Winning margin

Buxton wins by 2+
18%
South Shields wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Buxton 1+ goals
74%
Buxton 2+ goals
39%
Buxton 3+ goals
15%
South Shields 1+ goals
71%
South Shields 2+ goals
36%
South Shields 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Buxton (draw refunded)
53%
South Shields (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buxton at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

South Shields away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buxton attack 1.23 + South Shields defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

South Shields attack 1.50 + Buxton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Buxton scores more
39%
level
26%
South Shields scores more
35%

Buxton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Buxton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • South Shields score first in only 26% of matches
  • South Shields win just 33% against the top half (vs 71% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Buxton
WWLLW
Shields
LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Buxton vs South Shields — Match Preview

Buxton face South Shields on January 23, 2027 in this League #50 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.