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Buxton vs Chorley — League #50 2026

Buxton
Buxton
Preview
15:00
Chorley
Chorley
2/20/2027League #50League #50 · National League North - 34
Big match
50%
Buxton
model favours
50%24%26%

Chorley score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Buxton50%
×Draw24%
Chorley26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buxton
1.68
Chorley
1.13

Buxton creates 49% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

creates per match

Buxton
1.23
Chorley
1.25

allows per match

Buxton
1.00
Chorley
2.13

finishing

Buxton+0.00on par
Chorley+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buxton ↓

Chorley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Buxton or draw
74%
Buxton or Chorley
76%
Draw or Chorley
50%

Winning margin

Buxton wins by 2+
27%
Chorley wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Buxton 1+ goals
81%
Buxton 2+ goals
50%
Buxton 3+ goals
24%
Chorley 1+ goals
68%
Chorley 2+ goals
31%
Chorley 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Buxton (draw refunded)
66%
Chorley (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buxton at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Chorley away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buxton attack 1.23 + Chorley defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.68

Chorley attack 1.25 + Buxton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Buxton scores more
50%
level
24%
Chorley scores more
26%

Buxton at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Buxton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Buxton score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in 80% of Chorley’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Buxton
WWLLW
Chorley
DLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Buxton host Chorley

February 20, 2027: Buxton take on Chorley in League #50. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.