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Bury vs Sunderland — League One 2018

Bury
Bury
Canc
15:00
Sunderland
Sunderland
12/21/2019League OneLeague One · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bury58%
×Draw21%
Sunderland22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bury
2.17
Sunderland
1.27

Bury creates 71% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 86 away

creates per match

Bury
3.25
Sunderland
1.30

allows per match

Bury
1.25
Sunderland
1.09

finishing

Bury+0.00on par
Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bury ↓

Sunderland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bury or draw
78%
Bury or Sunderland
79%
Draw or Sunderland
42%

Winning margin

Bury wins by 2+
35%
Sunderland wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bury 1+ goals
89%
Bury 2+ goals
64%
Bury 3+ goals
36%
Sunderland 1+ goals
72%
Sunderland 2+ goals
36%
Sunderland 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bury (draw refunded)
72%
Sunderland (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bury at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bury attack 3.25 + Sunderland defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 2.17

Sunderland attack 1.30 + Bury defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bury scores more
58%
level
21%
Sunderland scores more
22%

Bury at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bury host Sunderland

December 21, 2019: Bury take on Sunderland in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.