Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bury vs Rochdale — League One 2018

Bury
Bury
Canc
15:00
Rochdale
Rochdale
3/14/2020League OneLeague One · Round 38

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bury64%
×Draw18%
Rochdale18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bury
2.55
Rochdale
1.31

Bury creates 95% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 72 away

creates per match

Bury
3.25
Rochdale
1.38

allows per match

Bury
1.25
Rochdale
1.85

finishing

Bury+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bury ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Bury or draw
82%
Bury or Rochdale
82%
Draw or Rochdale
36%

Winning margin

Bury wins by 2+
42%
Rochdale wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bury 1+ goals
92%
Bury 2+ goals
72%
Bury 3+ goals
46%
Rochdale 1+ goals
73%
Rochdale 2+ goals
38%
Rochdale 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bury (draw refunded)
78%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bury at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bury attack 3.25 + Rochdale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.55

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Bury defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Bury scores more
64%
level
18%
Rochdale scores more
18%

Bury at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Bury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bury host Rochdale

March 14, 2020: Bury take on Rochdale in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.