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Bury vs Oxford United — League One 2018

Bury
Bury
Canc
19:45
Oxford United
Oxford United
1/28/2020League OneLeague One · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bury60%
×Draw20%
Oxford United21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bury
2.32
Oxford United
1.31

Bury creates 77% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 135 away

creates per match

Bury
3.25
Oxford United
1.36

allows per match

Bury
1.25
Oxford United
1.39

finishing

Bury+0.00on par
Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bury ↓

Oxford United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bury or draw
79%
Bury or Oxford United
80%
Draw or Oxford United
40%

Winning margin

Bury wins by 2+
38%
Oxford United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bury 1+ goals
90%
Bury 2+ goals
67%
Bury 3+ goals
40%
Oxford United 1+ goals
73%
Oxford United 2+ goals
38%
Oxford United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bury (draw refunded)
74%
Oxford United (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bury at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bury attack 3.25 + Oxford United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 2.32

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Bury defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bury scores more
60%
level
20%
Oxford United scores more
21%

Bury at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bury face Oxford United (League One)

League One returns with Bury hosting Oxford United. Match starts January 28, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.